Archive for February, 2012
Capital Economics expects the housing crisis to end this year, according to a report released Tuesday. One of the reasons: loosening credit.
The analytics firm notes the average credit score required to attain a mortgage loan is 700. While this is higher than scores required prior to the crisis, it is constant with requirements one year ago.
Additionally, a Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey found credit requirements in the fourth quarter were consistent with the past three quarters.
However, other market indicators point not just to a stabilization of mortgage lending standards, but also a loosening of credit availability. Banks are now lending amounts up to 3.5 times borrower earnings. This is up from a low during the crisis of 3.2 times borrower earnings.
Banks are also loosening loan-to-value ratios (LTV), which Capital Economics denotes “the clearest sign yet of an improvement in mortgage credit conditions.”
In contrast to a low of 74 percent reached in mid-2010, banks are now lending at 82 percent LTV.
While credit conditions may have loosened slightly, some potential homebuyers are still struggling with credit requirements. In fact, Capital Economics points out that in November 8 percent of contract cancellations were the result of a potential buyer not qualifying for a loan.
Additionally, Capital Economics says “any improvement in credit conditions won’t be significant enough to generation actual house price gains,” and potential ramifications from the euro-zone pose a threat to future credit availability.
By Lou Carlozo
Wed Feb 15, 2012 12:05pm EST
(Reuters) – Rich Arzaga owns a luxury home in San Ramon, California, but he’s not betting on it as an investment.
The founder and CEO of Cornerstone Wealth Management, who bought the 5,000 sq. ft. property in 2005 for $1.8 million and has spent $500,000 improving it, considers the abode a wonderful place for his family. But ask him to rate his home — or any home, for that matter — as a financial investment, and Arzaga balks.
“It’s the American Dream to own a home, but whoever said that didn’t do the analysis on it,” says Arzaga, knowing he’s taking a contrarian stance to conventional wisdom.
Examining 250 properties around the U.S., and going through close to 40 client files to project the financial impact of owning real estate versus liquidating it, Arzaga, an adjunct professor in personal finance at the University of California at Berkeley, found that, “100 percent of the time it was better to rent, rather than own.”
That’s right: 100 percent.
The reason is simple. While a home is the main repository of wealth for many Americans, it comes with numerous hefty expenses. The carrying costs – what’s needed to hold and maintain the asset – range from property taxes and home insurance to emergency repairs and renovations. In a rental situation, the landlord covers those costs, leaving the occupant free to invest revenue in other areas.
“I don’t have the emotions a lot of people do surrounding real estate,” Arzaga says. “I have steely eyes for how investing in real estate works, and I’d better be a prudent investor for my clients.”
Owning a dream home, he says, creates a drain on other financial priorities, causing homeowners “not to meet their financial goals. They were going to fail.”
Some real estate experts thought there was some truth to Arzaga’s argument, albeit with several conditions.
“To state that owning a home is or isn’t a good investment is too simplistic,” says Jeffrey Rogers, president and COO of Integra Realty Resources. “It depends. In times of relatively higher rents, low home values, and low interest rates, it makes sense to own a home. But in a reverse market, it wouldn’t be economically feasible. Over time, those who purchase in down or flat markets with low interest rates come out ahead.”
“Our lifetimes are a long time, and when we look over the long term, real estate and other investments tend to have a positive return,” says Jed Kolko, chief economist at Trulia.com,
a real estate search and research website. “But when it comes to real estate, changing your mind is expensive. There are a lot of costs involved in buying, selling and moving. If you move every two years, it’s probably a bad investment for you. It also depends on your job market. If you’re in a one-company town and the company goes down, there goes your job and there goes your home value.”
Greg McBride, a senior analyst at Bankrate.com, agrees with one point of Arzaga’s. “Home ownership is not so much a creator of wealth as a store of wealth,” he says. “The promise of home ownership is that over the long haul, it can rebate many or perhaps all of your costs, unlike rent, which doesn’t rebate a dime.”
The trouble, he says, is that many Americans want a home so badly, they neglect other ways to grow wealth and financial security.
“You have the other financial bases covered: emergency savings, retirement savings, paying off debt, saving for the education of your children,” McBride says. “There’s no sense in buying a home if it’s going to deplete your emergency or retirement savings.”
McBride crunched the numbers in a pre-bubble era (2004) for a home purchased at $200,000 by a buyer in the 27 percent marginal tax bracket. Factoring in a 30-year mortgage, $1,200 in annual home insurance, closing costs of $5,500 and maintenance costs of $100 a month, along with property taxes, he calculated that it would take a selling price, 10 years later, of $395,404 just to break even. His conclusion gave Arzaga’s view credence: “Homeownership may not be the moneymaker you think it is.” (See the full chart at link.reuters.com/hej66s)
Then there’s the emergency fund, a must for when a home requires unexpected repair work.
“As far as emergency savings is concerned, six months of a cushion is adequate,” McBride says. “But only 24 percent of people have that kind of cushion, and about 65 percent own homes.”
So while home ownership may sound glamorous, you need a lot of money to make it work, without much guarantee of positive returns in a post-bubble era. Indeed, Arzaga cites himself as an example of how home ownership doesn’t pay off. His residence is today worth $1.5 million, about 17 percent less than what he paid.
So why not sell? For Arzaga, it’s a lifestyle choice, and one that he doesn’t regret, since his big money-making investments are elsewhere.
(Editing by Bernadette Baum, Beth Pinsker Gladstone and Andrew Hay)
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Retail sales for January enjoyed a slight gain to $401.4 billion, an uptick of 0.4 percent from the previous month, the Census Bureau reported last week. More encouragingly, this was 5.8 percent higher than January 2011, and total sales for the November 2011 through January 2012 period were up 6.3 percent from the same period a year ago.
Looking at categories, January’s retail trade sales were up 0.4 percent from December 2011 and 5.5 percent above last year. Food services and drinking establishment sales were up 8.2 percent from January 2011 and building material sales were up 8.1 percent from last year.
In fact, January retail sales pointed to growing underlying strength in the economy, given that core retail sales, which exclude auto, gasoline and building material sales, actually increased 0.7 percent, indicating increased consumption by Americans.
“[The] retail sales data are better than they look, but they don’t suggest that consumption growth is about to set the economic recovery alight,” wrote Paul Dales, an economist at Capital Economics, in a note to clients.
First-time claims for unemployment benefits placed in the week ending February 11 dropped to 348,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 361,000, the Employment and Training Administration reported last week. The four-week moving average was 365,250, a decrease of 1,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 367,000.
The total number of insured unemployed workers during the week ending February 4 dropped to 3,426,000, a decrease of 100,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,526,000, the Administration also reported. The four-week moving average was 3,492,500, a decrease of 8,250 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,500,750.
Turning to real estate, building permits issued in January for construction of private housing ticked up to an annual rate of 676,000, which was 0.7 percent over December’s revised rate of 671,000, and 19 percent over the January 2011 estimate of 568,000, the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported last week. Permits for single-family homes issued in January were at a rate of 445,000; this is 0.9 percent above the revised December figure of 441,000.
Actual starts on construction of private housing initiated in January hit an annual rate of 699,000, which was 1.5 percent above December’s revised estimate of 689,000 and 9.9 percent higher than the January 2011 rate of 636,000. Starts on single-family homes in January declined to a rate of 508,000, which was 1 percent less than December’s revised rate of 513,000.
Completions of private housing in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 530,000, which was 12 percent below December’s revised estimate of 602,000, but 4.1 percent higher than the January 2011 rate of 509,000. Completions of single-family homes in January were at a rate of 389,000, which was 14.9 percent under December’s revised rate of 457,000.
Industrial production was unchanged from December to January, as a gain of 0.7 percent in manufacturing was offset by declines in mining and utilities for the month, the Federal Reserve reported last week. Looking at specific segments, the index for motor vehicles and parts jumped 6.8 percent and the index for other manufacturing industries increased 0.3 percent. The output of utilities fell 2.5 percent, as demand for heating was held down by temperatures that moved further above seasonal norms; the output of mines declined 1.8 percent.
This week sees an extremely light calendar of financial headlines due to the Presidents’ Day holiday, starting Wednesday with existing home sales for January form the National Association of REALTORS®. This is followed Thursday by initial jobless claims for last week from the Employment and Training Administration. The week closes with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment score for February and new home sales for January from the Census Bureau.
This property has been reduced from $2500 a month to now a $2295 for a December 1st move in!! Just over 2,000 sq. ft. of finished living space in this 3 bedroom and 3 bath home. If you are the outdoor type you will enjoy the huge spaces on the 2 levels of decks outside the house just as much as the spacious rooms inside the home. Inside you will find hardwood flooring, new carpet, vaulted ceilings, 2 wood burning fireplaces and much more. Listen to the crackle of the fireplace from the loft style master bedroom, or enjoy the quiet setting from anywhere in the home…. you have more trees than neighbors. In the colder months you will appreciate the quiet and gentle warming of the hot water baseboard heating system, with 4 zones for getting every room just right. Once you pull your car into the 2 car, oversized, attached garage, you have entered your own lodge in your own little national park. Please call to set up a private showing, but hurry this home will not be available for long.
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DENVER — Colorado Attorney General John Suthers announced today that Colorado has joined a $25 billion multistate settlement with the five largest national banks, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citi and Ally, who account for 60 percent of the home loan servicing market, to end problematic business practices and to help distressed homeowners. The settlement — the second largest multistate consumer protection settlement — will deliver $204.6 million worth of relief for Colorado homeowners.
Under the terms of the settlement, Colorado, which served on the executive committee that oversaw the settlement negotiations, will receive:
- $73.3 million that will be available to grant principal reductions on loans to make a modification possible. Approximately 40 percent of these funds will also be available to ease the effects of foreclosure, including waiving deficiency balances, enhanced cash-for-keys payments and blight prevention;
- $52.5 million in cash to the state;
- $46.3 million worth of refinancing benefits to underwater borrowers; and,
- $32.49 million in payments to homeowners who lost their homes to foreclosure between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2011.
Nationally, the banks have agreed to:
- Commit a minimum of $17 billion directly to borrowers through a series of national homeowner relief options, including principal reduction. Given how the settlement is structured, servicers will actually provide up to an estimated $32 billion in direct homeowner relief.
- Commit $3 billion to a mortgage refinancing program for borrowers who are current, but owe more than their home is currently worth.
- Pay $5 billion to the states and federal government ($4.25 billion to the states and $750 million to the federal government).
- Provide homeowners with comprehensive new protections through new mortgage loan servicing and foreclosure standards.
- Be overseen by an independent monitor will ensure mortgage servicer compliance.
“This agreement delivers real help to homeowners affected by the banks’ dual tracking and other improper mortgage- and foreclosure-related processes,” Suthers said. “As a result of this settlement, the banks will end a series of problematic processes that put homeowners at a severe disadvantage during the foreclosure process. This settlement will not solve every problem with the housing market, but it goes a long way to helping homeowners in distress now and leveling the playing field for consumers.”
The settlement is the second largest multistate consumer protection enforcement settlement after the 1998 tobacco litigation settlement. This agreement is the result of a massive civil law enforcement investigation and initiative that includes state attorneys general and state banking regulators across the country and nearly a dozen federal agencies. It holds banks accountable for past mortgage servicing and foreclosure fraud and abuses and provides relief to homeowners. With the backing of a federal court order and the oversight of an independent monitor, the settlement stops future fraud and abuse.
Customers of the five settling banks who lost their homes to foreclosure between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2011may be eligible for restitution under the settlement. The independent, third-party administrator of the settlement hopes to contact affected victims by the end of the summer. Customers of the five settling banks who are still in their homes but either behind on their payments or underwater should contact the banks directly through dedicated toll-free contact numbers to determine if they are eligible for assistance:
- Bank of America - 1-877-488-7814
- Chase - 1-866-372-6901
- Citi - 1-866-272-4749
- GMAC/Ally - 1-800-766-4622
- Wells Fargo – 1-800-288-3212
The Office of the Attorney General will work with the Governor’s Office and the General Assembly to ensure that the $52.5 million Colorado directly receives under the settlement will be used for purposes including foreclosure prevention, housing-counseling services, additional legal services for distressed homeowners, promotion of loan-modification opportunities and anti-blight efforts.
The settlement changes the way the banks do business. Under the agreement, the banks will be required to stop the use of robo-signing, end the process of dual tracking of loans, provide a single point of contact for consumers as they move through the loan-modification processes, create an online portal for consumers to get information about where they are in the loan-modification process, and abide by a strict set of deadlines for dealing with loan modifications. The settlement also requires that the banks post payments they receive to homeowners’ accounts within two business days of receiving them.
The foreclosure practices of the banks will be subject to strict oversight by an independent monitor who will provide regular reports to the participating states. The banks will be subject to stiff fines if they violate the terms of the agreement.
The settlement does not grant any immunity from criminal offenses and will not affect criminal prosecutions. The agreement does not prevent homeowners or investors from pursuing individual, institutional or class action civil cases against the five servicers. The pact also enables state attorneys general and federal agencies to investigate and pursue other aspects of the mortgage crisis, including securities cases.
Consumers interested in learning more about the multistate agreement can visit www.NationalMortgageSettlement.com orwww.coloradoattorneygeneral.gov/mortgagesettlement.
If consumers believe they have been affected by the banks’ problematic processes or have experienced any form of foreclosure fraud, they can file a complaint at www.coloradoattorneygeneral.gov/complaint. To learn more about Colorado’s ongoing fight against mortgage and foreclosure fraud, visit the Office of the Attorney General’s Mortgage Fraud Information Center.
Homeowners facing foreclosure also should contact the Colorado Foreclosure Hotline at 1-877-601-4673 or visitwww.coloradoforeclosurehotline.org. The hotline works with homeowners in or facing foreclosure. Homeowners who call the free hotline can speak with a housing counselor about their options.
In previous years, it was embarrassing to say you rent. Today, in most cases, it is embarrassing to say you own. According to the US Census Bureau, the U.S. homeownership rate has fallen about 1.5% over the past year (from 66.9% to 65.9%). For every 1% drop in the homeownership rate, it represents approximately 1 million new renters entering the rental market.
In some cases, homeownership rates have fallen below some European countries. Italy for example, has an 84% homeownership rate. Along with Spain with a 78% homeownership rate.
High unemployment rates, difficulty in getting financing, changing demographics and increased foreclosure rates are adding to the deceleration of homeownership. In 2011, there was a 4% increase in the amount of renting households compared to 2010.
In the United States, homeownership is the least in states like California (56%), New York (54%) and Washington at (64%). States with the highest homeownership rates are Michigan (75%), Mississippi (75%), South Carolina (75%) and West Virginia at (79%).
Rental vacancy rates dropped to 5.6 percent in the third quarter of 2011, down from their record high of 8 percent in 2009, according to Reis Inc. This increase in rental demand is putting upward pressure on rental prices throughout the United States. As more foreclosures and new apartment buildings enter the market, the rental rates should stabilize and reach equilibrium.
Renting is the new buying and this trend doesn’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon.
RentBits, Rental Property Search
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The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage dropped to the lowest since records have been kept, creating a tempting target for people to refinance their homes.
Freddie Mac said Thursday the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage hit 3.87 percent, down from 3.98 percent the prior week. That’s below the previous record of 3.88 hit two weeks ago.
The average on the 15-year fixed mortgage fell to 3.14 percent, also a record low. Records for mortgage rates
date back to the 1950s.
Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which fell below 1.9 percent this week.
Mortgage rates have hovered near 4 percent for the past three months, and have perhaps contributed to a slight improvement in the housing market. But many homeowners remain underwater and the pipeline of foreclosures continues to be huge, putting heavy pressure on housing prices.
High unemployment and scant wage gains have made it harder for many people to qualify for loans. Many don’t want to sink money into a home that they fear could lose value over the next few years.
Sales of previously occupied homes were dismal last year. New-home sales in 2011 were the worst on records going back half a century.
Builders are hopeful that the low rates could boost sales next year. But so far, they have had a minimal impact.
Mortgage applications have risen slightly over the past four weeks, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. But they are coming off extremely low levels.
To calculate the average rates, Freddie Mac surveys lenders across the country Monday through Wednesday of each week.
The average rates don’t include extra fees, known as points, which most borrowers must pay to get the lowest rates. One point equals 1 percent of the loan amount.
The average fee for the 30-year loan rose to 0.8 from 0.7; the average on the 15-year fixed mortgage was unchanged at 0.8.
For the five-year adjustable loan, the average rate fell to 2.80 percent from 2.85 percent. The average on the one-year adjustable loan rose to 2.76 percent from 2.74 percent.
The average fee on the five-year adjustable loan rose was unchanged at 0.7; the average on the one-year adjustable
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Since the market downturn several years ago lawmakers in Washington have been talking about reforming the secondary mortgage market but nothing has come out of Congress yet. This year, though, a lot of progress is expected to be made toward reform, so it will be especially important for real estate brokers and sales associates to stay engaged in what’s happening, particularly this spring.
Although we’re still waiting for legislation to come out, lawmakers have been working on the issue quite a bit. Four bills have been introduced that would take a comprehensive approach to reform, including a bill by Rep. Gary Miller (R-Calif.) that very closely matches up with NAR’s priority, which is to encourage private investors to return to the secondary market while replacing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with an entity that continues to back conforming loans but as a nonprofit, not as a for-profit company.
NAR wants the federal government to keep a presence in the market out of a concern that mortgages remain available and affordable even in bad markets, when it’s too risky or not profitable enough for purely private participants to be counted on.
Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.) also has a bill out that matches up with NAR aims in many respects, and the association is working with the senator and his staff to refine his approach this spring. In a key point about his bill, it would define conforming loans as those that are based on sound underwriting, not on the amount of downpayment.
That’s important, because banking regulators have drafted Wall Street reform rules that would define conforming loans—what they call qualified residential mortgages (QRM)—as those that meet minimum downpayment requirements and other standards. NAR and others have been vocal about how bad that would be for the market, and the Isakson bill would address that.
In addition to these and a couple of other comprehensive reform bills, lawmakers have introduced 19 other bills that look at specific aspects of reform. NAR has never come out in support of any of these single-issue bills because it wants reform to be comprehensive, not piecemeal. All of the aims of these many bills will get looked at and, as NAR would like to see it, folded into a comprehensive bill where that makes sense.
So, a lot will be going on in the next few months, and NAR members can expct to hear more shortly. But whether all of this activity results in a single bill for a vote this year is uncertain. For one thing, starting around summer lawmakers will begin focusing on the upcoming national elections, so that could mean putting off a big vote like this until 2013, when the dust from the elections has settled.
But that’s all the more reason NAR members have to be engaged now. Because even if legislation takes until 2013 to pass, key decisions could be made in the next few months.
You can learn more about what to expect on reform in the 6-minute video with NAR analyst Tony Hutchinson.
Washington, DC – The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) today announced the first
step of a Real-Estate Owned (REO) Initiative targeted to hardest-hit metropolitan areas
announced in August 2011. Investors interested in participating may “pre-qualify” to establish
eligibility to bid on transactions in the initial pilot phase as well as subsequent phases.
The REO Initiative will allow qualified investors to purchase pools of foreclosed properties with
the requirement to rent the purchased properties for a specified number of years. This rental
period could provide relief for local housing markets that continue to be depressed by the
volume of foreclosed properties, and provide additional rental options to certain markets. Prequalification ensures investors will have the financial capacity and operational expertise to manage properties in a way that is conducive to the stabilization of communities hard hit by the housing downturn.
The REO Initiative was developed in conjunction with the Treasury Department, Department of
Housing and Urban Development, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Federal Reserve,
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The Initiative was informed by meetings with stakeholders and
review of more than 4,000 responses to a Request for Information (RFI) seeking input on
options for selling single-family REO properties held by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the
Federal Housing Administration.
“This is an important step toward increasing private investment in foreclosed properties to
maximize value and stabilize communities,” said FHFA Acting Director Edward J. DeMarco. “I
am grateful for the collaborative effort by the many stakeholders including investors, nonprofit
organizations, and state and local government officials, who have worked together on this
Initiative.”
During the pilot phase, Fannie Mae will offer for sale pools of various types of assets including
rental properties, vacant properties and non-performing loans with a focus on the hardest-hit
areas. The first transaction will be announced in the near-term.
The pre-qualification will require those interested in receiving information regarding specific
pilot transactions to meet certain minimum criteria including, but not limited to, (a) financial
wherewithal to acquire the assets; (b) sufficient experience and knowledge in financial and
business matters to analyze and bear the risks of the investment opportunity; and (c)
agreement to keep certain information about the REO and related matters confidential.
Interested investors can register at FHFA’s REO Initiative page to pre-qualify.
FHFA is also looking at ways to improve REO sales to homeowners and small investors,
enhancing the existing retail sales strategy at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Both companies
sell the majority of their REO properties to owner-occupants at close to market value. The
purpose of the pilot phase will be to examine investor interest in various types of assets,
including the location, size, and composition of pools of assets; the ways in which investors
maximize the participation of experienced local firms and organizations that can provide the
types of services and support needed to ensure community stabilization; the types of structures
and/or financing that improve returns to the sellers as well as home values in impacted
markets; and the process by which investors are qualified to and ultimately participate in the
sales transactions.
This 5 Bedroom plus office 31/2 bath offers amazing views from the patio deck. Large entry area with high ceilings. Large family room with fireplace. Enjoy cooking in the chefs kitchen with cherry cabinets and granite counter top breakfast bar. Formal dinning room. Also located on the main floor are two additional bedrooms. Upstairs is the master bedroom with two walk outs with one walk out leading to the patio deck for enjoying views and eating. Master bath with dual sinks and double head shower. An additional bedroom is also located on the top floor. Downstairs from the main level has a big bedroom room and an office/workout. The laundry room is also located downstairs. Attached 3 car garage
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